Week 2 of Election: PC Polling Currently at Land-Slide Levels, Do Liberals and NDP struggle for Party Status?
PCs Lead Strongly, Liberals and NDP Struggle for Second
In Week 2 of the campaign, the Progressive Conservatives (PCs) maintain a significant lead in the polls.
Doug Ford’s party is polling between 43-50%, depending on the polling firm and methodology.
Liberals and NDP are competing for second place, but neither appears poised to challenge Ford.
Poll Discrepancies
Two polling approaches show slight differences in PC support:
IVR Polling (automated calls): PCs at 43% (Mainstreet Research, Liaison Strategies).
Online Panels (Leger, Ipsos, etc.): PCs at 46-50%.
Overall estimate: PCs around 47-48%.
Desire for Change vs. Ford’s Strong Lead
60% of Ontarians want a change in government, but they don’t see the Liberals or NDP as viable alternatives. 🤨
Many voters may stick with the PCs as the "lesser of evils."
PCs’ Majority Almost Certain
338Canada projects above a 99-seat majority for the PCs.
If polls hold:
IVR estimates suggest a comfortable majority (75 seats).
Online estimates suggest a near-total PC sweep.
The NDP risks losing official party status (requires 12 seats) if they continue declining.
Liberal & NDP Struggles
NDP’s support has dropped from 24% (2022) to around 17-18%.
This could lead to seat losses in close races.
Liberals only had 9 seats before dissolution.
Even a small increase (to ~12 seats) could help them regain recognized party status.
If one party pulls ahead, progressive voters may consolidate behind them to avoid vote splitting.
Turnout & PC Support Stability
PC voters are unlikely to stay home, even in bad weather.
Conservatives tend to rally when they see a win is possible.
Regional Battlegrounds
Niagara Region & Hamilton: PCs are making strong gains, potentially flipping traditional NDP areas.
Western GTA (Mississauga, Brampton): Key test for Bonnie Crombie—can she even win her own seat?
London & Windsor: Labour support will be crucial—Ford has courted union votes in these regions.
Potential Election Outcomes
If the polls remain steady, a large PC majority is the most likely result.
NDP risks a severe seat loss, possibly falling below official party status.
Liberals could see moderate gains, but not enough to challenge Ford.
Greens will likely hold their two seats, with no significant growth.
Key Takeaway Week 2 of Election:
Doug Ford and the PCs are in firm control of the race, with no clear challenger emerging from the Liberals or NDP. If trends continue, this election could be a PC landslide.