Key Developments in the Next Three Weeks: Carney’s Liberal Minority Government
Cabinet Formation and NDP Collaboration
With Mark Carney’s Liberals forming a minority government after the 2025 election, the immediate priority is assembling a new cabinet. The swearing-in of cabinet ministers is expected soon, as Parliament is set to return on May 26, and Carney must act quickly to ensure the government is operational. Given the Liberals’ 168 (they lost a seat yesterday to the Bloc in Quebec) seats-just shy of a majority-Carney will need to secure support from other parties, most notably the NDP, to pass key legislation, including the upcoming budget. There is credible speculation that some NDP MPs may be offered cabinet positions to solidify this alliance, echoing past arrangements where the NDP propped up Liberal minority governments in exchange for policy concessions.
Immediate Priorities: Budget and Legislative Agenda
Once cabinet appointments are finalized, the government’s next major task will be crafting and introducing a budget that reflects the Liberal campaign platform. This is a critical step, as failure to pass a budget could trigger another election in the near term. The budget and legislative agenda will be shaped by the Liberals’ campaign promises, which are now public and should guide advocacy and lobbying efforts.
Liberal Campaign Priorities: What to Expect
The Liberal platform, as articulated by Carney and detailed in official campaign literature, centers on several key pillars:
Massive New Spending: The Liberals have pledged nearly $130 billion in new measures over four years, with a focus on economic stimulus and infrastructure.
Housing Affordability: A signature promise is the Build Canada Homes program, which aims to dramatically increase affordable housing supply, backed by $12 billion in new funding and additional tax incentives for homebuyers and developers.
Defense and Security: The platform commits to raising defense spending by $18 billion to meet NATO targets, modernize the military, and address emerging security threats.
Tax Cuts for Lower-Income Canadians: The Liberals plan to reduce the lowest marginal tax rate from 15% to 14%, costing $22 billion over four years.
Climate and Energy: The Liberals pledge to make Canada a “superpower” in both clean and conventional energy, support critical minerals development, and expand disaster response capabilities.
Healthcare and Social Programs: Investments are earmarked for expanding medical residency programs, youth mental health, and other healthcare initiatives.
Revenue Measures: The platform anticipates increased revenue from tariffs (especially in response to U.S. trade actions), enhanced government efficiency, and stricter enforcement by the Canada Revenue Agency.
Strategic Advocacy: Timing and Approach
Early Engagement is Critical
The next three weeks are pivotal. As new ministers and their political staff settle into their roles, there is a brief window for stakeholders to build relationships and shape policy discussions before bureaucratic briefings and entrenched positions take hold. Waiting until September, when Parliament resumes after the summer, risks being crowded out by a surge of competing interests. Those who engage early-during the summer-will have a strategic advantage in influencing the government’s agenda.
Focus Your Messaging
TheCCSGroup believes Lobbying and advocacy efforts should be tightly aligned with the Liberal platform’s published priorities. The government’s immediate focus will be on delivering on its campaign promises, and minority governments are especially driven by recent electoral commitments, with little appetite for deviating from them. Policy documents and messaging should demonstrate how your objectives support or enhance these federal priorities.
Monitor Cabinet and Staff Appointments
Expect a period of flux as cabinet ministers are appointed and begin hiring their political staff. It is advisable to identify key ministers and staff relevant to your issues as soon as possible, and to initiate contact early. This proactive approach ensures your perspective is part of the initial policy formation process, rather than a late addition after positions have hardened.
Summary Table: Liberal Platform Priorities (2025)
Conclusion
The next three weeks will set the tone for Mark Carney’s minority government. Cabinet formation, potential NDP collaboration, and the introduction of a budget rooted in the Liberal campaign platform are immediate priorities. Advocacy and lobbying efforts should begin now, with messaging tailored to the government’s published commitments, to maximize influence before the policy landscape solidifies.